Not quite my dream BCS scenario, but close enough

Wow! That’s all I have to say. In easiest the crazy college football season ever,  barring a Hawaii miracle, we should end up with a two-loss team playing for the National Championship. So the question to all the critics who say that a playoff would “devalue” the regular season, please explain how we aren’t there already. Take a look at the four teams looking for a shot at Ohio St. for the national title:

  1. Georgia – The poster boy for “devalued” regular season thanks to their two-losses and the fact that they didn’t even win their division in the SEC. Somehow they are ranked #4 in the BCS despite the fact that it was two other teams playing for the SEC championship earlier today. If the national attrition we have grown to hate continues, they are the team in the title game.
  2. Virginia Tech – The highest ranked team that won  their title game today. VaTech had an emotional season after the tragedy on campus last spring. Anyone who is not a fan of the other teams on this list should be rooting for these guys to make (and win) the championship. Lost to LSU (very early in the season).
  3. LSU – Won the SEC title game today and their only two losses were both in triple overtime. I think they are the most likely team to make the title game and would be deserving of such. Les Miles can still earn the new contract.
  4. USC – One of the hottest teams playing right now they are really on a roll. But it’s been said already, no team that loses at home when they are 41-point favorites should be in the big game.

This is about the worst-case scenario for the BCS at this point. In years past we could often say that as screwed up as the BCS seems it still usually gets it right. It’s highly unlikely we will be saying that this year, at least with any level of certainty. Furthermore, this mess is definitely not going to be enough to get us the 8-team playoff that would be optimal. But it almost certainly will lead to some sort of modification to the current system. Most likely it will be the much-rumored +1 system. Let me go on a record as saying this is worse than the current system, but that can be good. Because the first time this really screws things up we might be in line for something better. Why do I think the +1 is worse? Because the first time some team (let’s say an SEC team) runs the table, wins the SEC title, and then wins their bowl game they will be 14-0, what happens if they lose the +1 game to a two-loss team? I understand that in the current system a similar scenario is possible, but unlikely. I could go into many details but the bottom line is that something will go wrong with a +1.

Meanwhile, here are my predictions for the bowls:

  • Championship: Ohio St. vs. LSU
  • Rose: USC vs. Illinois
  • Orange:  Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
  • Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona St.
  • Sugar: Georgia vs. Hawaii* (if Hawaii fails to win tonight this spot will go to Kansas)

Why do I think it will shake out that way? Georgia won’t (read: shouldn’t) be #2 when the standings come out but I am betting they stay 3rd or 4th. By the BCS rules that means they make it automatically (which also means the SEC is out of spots). Because Ohio St. will be #1, the Rose Bowl will get first pick of teams BUT because the Sugar is losing LSU they would have to consent for the Rose bowl to take Georgia and they are NOT going to do that. So the Rose will likely take Illinois, make their money and preserve their tradition. The Sugar gets Georgia and the Orange picks next. Picking WVU sets up a nice regional matchup that would be attractive for fans to travel. The Fiesta picks next and would most likely take the local ASU Sun Devils. The Sugar bowl picks last since they get the championship game and will be “stuck” with Hawaii unless they lost tonight. If that happens the will have to pick from the ACC (Boston College/Clemson) or Big 12 (Missouri/Kansas) eligible teams. The bowls don’t like to take teams coming off losses but it’s going to be hard to avoid unless they take Clemson. I think they will take 1-loss Kansas who should travel well after their dream season.


1 Response to “Not quite my dream BCS scenario, but close enough”

  1. 1 muckdog December 2, 2007 at 1:01 am

    I love to see the BCS implode like this. Fan-tastic.

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