LSU is out, now what?

Lots move to come on this one, but LSU is out of the national title hunt. That means the chance of one two-loss team playing for (and winning) the national title just got better. The Kansas/Missouri winner has even more control now. If the winner of that can win the Big 12 title game (which should be Oklahoma, but I think if they lose to Ok. St things get crazy) they are a lock to be in the game. The other team figures to be West Virginia, but they still have to beat UConn and Pitt (at least both are at home).

If the Kansas/Missouri winner loses the Big 12 title game OR West Virginia loses one of it’s two games, that should leave Ohio St. back in the picture. OSU is done playing which means their 11-1 record is safe and they will be in with no question. If both of the teams lose, things get hairy. We will know in about 2 hours whether Hawaii is going to go undefeated but even if they do they probably need a lot more to happen for them to get in.

Amazingly the top 2-loss team right now seems to be Georgia, who needs Tennessee to lost tomorrow to even play for the SEC title. If Tennessee wins tomorrow, Georgia will likely be in the top 5 in the BCS on Sunday (if they win). Georgia is 7th and LSU figures to fall farther than that, ASU (6th) already lost, and Kansas or Missouri will lose. It’s not crazy to think Georgia could go all the way to 4th (!). If that happens and WVU or the Big 12 team loses could they really be #2? Can a team from the SEC that doesn’t even play for the title game actually play for the National Title? It seems crazy…

If Kansas/Missouri winner loses, and WVU loses there are a couple of teams that have a realistic shot:

  1. LSU – Crazy as it sounds, if they win the SEC title game they will be 11-2 with both losses coming in triple OT to conference teams. They should get a boost from beating Tennessee.
  2. Pac 10 champ – This could still be Oregon, USC, or Arizona St. USC is in the best shape after beating ASU. If they can survive UCLA they STILL need Oregon to lose to win the Pac 10. Again, does a team that doesn’t win the conference make it?
  3. ACC Champ – This will either be Virginia Tech (8th), Virginia (16th) or Boston College (16th). Virginia and VaTech play eachother tomorrow and the winner plays BC in the title game. Those are some big wins to finish the season and might be enough.

Things are so crazy at the moment, if I was (back) in Vegas I would go with Ohio St. vs. West Virginia in the title game. We will know a lot more tomorrow so expect an update on all of this on Sunday.

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