Christmas came early!!!

To quote the philosopher Harry Dunn from the critically acclaimed film Dumb and Dumber, “Just when I think you couldn’t possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this…and totally redeem yourself!” That’s what I would say to Bill Martin if I could.

Reports are coming in from everywhere that Rich Rodriguez has taken the job at Michigan. It’s kind of unreal that this happened. If you could go back to the day Carr announced his retirement and asked them who their top four candidates are, after you remove the unattainables (Urban, Carroll, Stoops, Spurrier), you would probably get the following four guys. This is how I ranked them personally:

1. Les Miles – He is a proven winner at multiple places. He can recruit. And most of all Michigan is his dream job meaning he would have been a lifer. You know he would have given 110% too.
2. Jeff Tedford – Genius X’s and O’s man who won at a  place where people don’t win.  Created  future NFL QBs Kyle Boller and Aaron Rodgers. He has ties to the fertile recruiting grounds of California. Personally I think he is holding out hoping Pete Carroll bails.
3. Rich Rodriguez - Another apparent genius at the X’s and O’s. He turned 3-star players Pat White and Steve Slaton into stars. Recruited in a relatively tough place. Won where it didn’t happen much. My fear is that since he is only 44 he might get tempted by the NFL around 50.
4. Greg Schiano - Won at Rutgers a bit. Seems loyal. Solid coach. But I always considered him a fallback guy (and was stunned when he said no).

So for me we got my third choice. Maisel made a great point in his article, saying Rich Rod had to take this job because it could be the last big job available for a while. Funny, I was saying the same thing last week. This is a major coup for “Bumbling” Bill Martin. When the dust settles and the sailing season is over, he will have gotten the best man for the job. A guy who is going to completely change Michigan football (for the better) and win some freaking ballgames.

Let me also be the second one (after my good friend who should remain nameless) to say let’s see if Rich Rod can bring Terelle Pryor with him. Obviously we know that he already has a connection with the UM basketball coach…

Do we owe Roger Clemens an apology?

ESPN was reporting earlier today that Roger Clemens, through his lawyer, that “vehemently denies ever using steroids.” He also feels like his reputation is tarnished and no matter if can prove it or not this cloud will hang over his head. Now first of all, it will be impossible for him to prove without a doubt that he didn’t take them. So the best you could end up with is a strong case against. But more importantly, Mike Wilbon pointed out today on PTI that Clemens denied George Mitchell’s request to speak with him.

Let’s be serious here. Clemens is smart guy. His name has been floated in these rumors before. He knew the Yankees would be (heavily) investigated. Wouldn’t he at least try to do some damage control, speak with the Mitchell report and make his case (assuming he never took steroids)? Wouldn’t he want to be in the report making his case and flatout denying it? Didn’t he know that if he waited until after no one would believe him?

There is no way I am going to believe that Clemens thought his name would not be in the report. No one denies his mysterious surge past 40 that I spoke about yesterday is exactly that, mysterious. As I said his name as come up in these conversations before. He’s perhaps the greatest pitcher of the last 50 years. He has to know that the bigger the star, the bigger the news. How can he wait until after the fact to do damage control and expect fans to understand?

The argument against is that Clemens should be innocent until proven guilty and shouldn’t have to say anything to George Mitchell if he is not involved. The evidence they have is hearsay, there is no doubt about it. I guess the guys who named Clemens could want attention but that wouldn’t make sense. Maybe they were assuming, who knows.  The bottom line is that Clemens didn’t play this very well and we don’t owe him a thing right now.

Wait, there’s a steroid problem in baseball?

In case you missed it, there’s a steroid problem in Major League Baseball, at least according to senator George Mitchell. His 320-something page report based on a the investigation he has been conducting over the last two years or so was released to day, and it claims there is a serious steroid problem in baseball. Seriously, how much money did this investigation take to do? How many computers could we have bought for schools with the money it took to confirm the most obvious fact since we found out Britney Spears is a tramp. It also goes on to say that baseball was slow to react to this problem. Again, DUH! Jose Canseco was doing this in the late 80s and even if he embelished, you would still think 10 years later baseball knew what was going on, and that was nearly 10 years ago.

Of course the hottest topic of conversation is the players specifically mentioned. They ranged from the guys we knew (Bonds, Giambi, Sheffield) to the guys we didn’t know [for sure] (Clemens, Pettite, Tejada) to the guys we don’t care about (Josias Manzanillo, Adam Piatt, Jim Parque). The list wasn’t nearly as long as I thought it would be but I am sure this is just the tip of the iceberg. There were plenty of All-Stars named but you would fully expect Clemens to take centerstage with all of this.

Clemens is easily the best pitcher of the last 20 years, and probably a lot more than that.  His 7 Cy Youngs are more than any other pitcher. He is 8th all-time in wins and with one more 10-win season he would be in the Top 5. He is 2nd all-time in strikeouts, and if you believe that it’s truly a hitters’ era, Clemens might be the best pitcher ever. But how surprised are we?

Clemens won 61 games after his age 40 season. That’s more than Bronson Arroyo has in his career and he is 30. You could make a serious argument that Clemens’ best two seasons were the two with Toronto (‘97 and ‘98) when he was 34 and 35  respectively. Guys who have been in the league 13 years typically don’t peak at age 34. Was it Skydome? There isn’t a huge sample size there before or after (surprisingly) but his numbers weren’t good there other than those two years. So how with this affect Clemens and his legacy? My prediction is that this will be the biggest story that comes from all of this.

For what it’s worth  Mark McGwire’s name did not appear.

Check out ESPN’s coverage of the Mitchell Report.

Another coach can’t cut it in the NFL

Bobby Petrino abruptly quit his job as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons and returned to the college ranks, this time with the Arkansas Razorbacks. Now while I will agree that the Falcons was one of the worst situations to be in, this is ridiculous. The Falcons traded backup quarterback Matt Schaub in the offseason and then lost their starting QB to some sort of legal problem (I am not really sure what this was about so if anyone can fill me in, let me know).

Petrino won’t even finish out the season as Falcons coach, meaning he didn’t even last one full season in the NFL. I think the biggest fallout from this will be a heavy reluctance for NFL teams to go after college coaches. After Nick Saban lasted just two seasons before bailing out (but not before emphatically denying he was leaving 9,823 times). Now Petrino can’t even last one season before jumping back to the college ranks. The trend is typically to hire coordinators from other teams for head coaching jobs but on occasion you get these college coaches who make the jump. We saw Steve Spurrier and Butch Davis both fail quickly. Spurrier lasted 2 seasons, Davis 3. From my calculations the only head coach left in the NFL that came directly from college is Oakland head coach Lane Kiffin. It could be a while before another one gets a shot. They seem to fail miserably or run away before they can.

As for Petrino, he inherits a good team in Arkansas in probably the best conference in CFB, the SEC. It will be his biggest challenge and give us a chance to see how good he really is as a college coach. Arkansas is arguably the best job available this year (and yes I say that even as a diehard Michigan fan) and while the expectations will be somewhat high, I am sure he will be given 5 years or so to make something of it.

Meanwhile the Falcons will continue on with whoever as their coach in what is one of the most disastrous seasons ever.  They will officially start over this offseason. They haven’t had a winning season since 2004 and Michael Vick was one of the most overrated players ever (seriously why did everyone think he was so good?). Now this team has no QB and basically not a lot else to get excited about. With Petrino it was almost a lock that they took Brian Brohm in the draft, now they might make a smarter choice. If Darren McFadden is there, he should be their guy. We should see.

Heisman Pundit took the words right out of my mouth

The great site Heisman Pundit has their picks for the 2008 Heisman Trophy and had a lot of guys I had in mind:

1. Chris Wells
2. Pat White
3. Chase Daniel
4. Percy Harvin
5. Jamaal Charles
6. Colt McCoy
7. C.J. Spiller

I told my friend at work this week that Chris Wells was my pick for next year’s Heisman. I also think Jamaal Charles is going to be the dark horse. I think regardless if Tebow wins it this year, he, Pat White, and Chase Daniel (if he actually returns) won’t win it. Finalists have such bad luck the next season. Ohio St. is going to be good again next year and “Beanie” is the guy to watch out for.

Michigan Freshman: Who got a redshirt?

 Here is the list of  Michigan’s 2007 recruiting class and who has and hasn’t played this year. I used Michigan’s Official website (mostly the player participation pages of each game). I have some notes on the guy’s who haven’t redshirted yet,

• Zion Babb
• Artis Chambers
• Toney Clemons
• Marell Evans
• Vince Helmuth
• Junior Hemingway
• Brandon Herron – A 3-star LB was probably not ready to contribute yet.
• Avery Horn – No surprise here, Horn is a 3-star back without a lot of potential as a starter. With Hart, Minor and Brown he had no chance of playing. I doubt he will see much playing time next year either.
• Mark Huyge – 3-star offensive lineman, Michigan can be counted on to always redshirt OL unless the situation is dire (read: Justin Boren)
• Ryan Mallett
• David Molk – See Mark Huyge
• Austin Panter
• James Rogers
• Renaldo Sagesse
• Ryan Van Bergen – I looked hard to find this guy and was very surprised he didn’t play. Maybe someone has a better idea why. I guess we have 4 other DEs but seriously this is usually the kind of guy Michigan wastes.
• Donovan Warren
• Steve Watson – A 3-star guy at a position with tons of depth already. Especially after Carson Butler came back. I thought after Massey went down it might happen but as far as I can tell, he didn’t.
• Martell Webb
• Michael Williams – Another guy I thought for sure would play. Recruited as a 4-star safety, I think he might end up at CB because he’s small. If he is going to play safety I thought he would play by now because Adams and Englemon are both gone after this year.
• Troy Woolfolk

What is on my mind

In the 5 days since I last posted I have been tracking two stories personally…the Michigan coaching search and the (lack of) hot stove action by the Chicago White Sox.

First, the Michigan coaching search seems to take a new turn each day. First Kirk Ferentz was in, then he was out. Then Les Miles was is, then he was out. Then Ferentz was back in. Greg Schiano was in, now he is out. Les Miles re-opened the door today, but Paul Johnson and Jim Grobe have been eliminated. Every day I think that my interest will drop and then something crazy happens to get it going again.

I don’t want to talk about the Les Miles/Bill Martin thing because that has been beaten to death. At the moment I am more concerned that Greg Schiano turned the job down. I know that he has a precedent with this because he turned down Miami job last year, and that was a place that he had coached before. But this is a headscratcher. Is Schiano just that happy at the dead-end Rutgers job or is he waiting for something bigger? I don’t know what could be bigger than Miami (where he was the DC for a couple of years) or the winningest program in history. Even if his goal is the NFL, wouldn’t that be easier from those two places? Rutgers is a tough place to recruit and Brian (from mgoblog) discussed this when he analyzed him. He is probably mistaken if he thinks that he will ever seriously contend for the MNC, especially consistently. All in all something smells with this situation. I am terrified that it’s a sign Michigan is really going to screw this up. At this point I am ready to rule out all the big names being thrown around. They are going to end up with Brady Hoke (from Ball St.) or one of their current assistants.

Meanwhile the White Sox pretty much twiddled their thumbs this week at the Winter Meetings while their division rivals added the best young hitter in baseball. The Sox are in serious trouble. Cleveland has the horses to dominate for at least the next 2-3 years. Detroit added some hitters and with their pitching they have another 2-3 years of battling it out with Cleveland. Minnesota already has a good young team and they are going to add some good young players whenever they trade Johan. What does this mean? In 2-3 years they will be back in the mix. Now the Sox look terribly foolish for signing all these contract extensions. The Sox have Paul Konerko, Javier Vaszquez, Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Jermaine Dye, AJ Pierzynski, Mike McDougal, Scott Linebrink and Matt Thornton all signed through at least 2009. That means the Sox either have to overpay like crazy and try to compete, which I personally think isn’t even feasible, or blow it up and try to start over.

The problem is that this is easier said than done. Teams are crazy about holding on to their prospects now-a-days and the Sox farm system sucks at the moment. A bigger problem is that they don’t have a lot of tradeable assets. None of their current contracts are horrible but none of them are great either. Paul Konerko is only making $12 mil/yr and by next season that might seem cheap. Javier Vazquez is $11.5 mil/year for his contract so again it’s not bad. If both these guys have big seasons they could be very tradeable next offseason. Of course there is no way that happens. Instead they will make Aaron Rowand the highest paid position player on the team despite his career average is .286, he has never hit 30 HRs in a season, and he is a vastly overrated fielder. My faith in Kenny Williams is fading…

Not quite my dream BCS scenario, but close enough

Wow! That’s all I have to say. In easiest the crazy college football season ever,  barring a Hawaii miracle, we should end up with a two-loss team playing for the National Championship. So the question to all the critics who say that a playoff would “devalue” the regular season, please explain how we aren’t there already. Take a look at the four teams looking for a shot at Ohio St. for the national title:

1. Georgia – The poster boy for “devalued” regular season thanks to their two-losses and the fact that they didn’t even win their division in the SEC. Somehow they are ranked #4 in the BCS despite the fact that it was two other teams playing for the SEC championship earlier today. If the national attrition we have grown to hate continues, they are the team in the title game.
2. Virginia Tech – The highest ranked team that won  their title game today. VaTech had an emotional season after the tragedy on campus last spring. Anyone who is not a fan of the other teams on this list should be rooting for these guys to make (and win) the championship. Lost to LSU (very early in the season).
3. LSU – Won the SEC title game today and their only two losses were both in triple overtime. I think they are the most likely team to make the title game and would be deserving of such. Les Miles can still earn the new contract.
4. USC – One of the hottest teams playing right now they are really on a roll. But it’s been said already, no team that loses at home when they are 41-point favorites should be in the big game.

This is about the worst-case scenario for the BCS at this point. In years past we could often say that as screwed up as the BCS seems it still usually gets it right. It’s highly unlikely we will be saying that this year, at least with any level of certainty. Furthermore, this mess is definitely not going to be enough to get us the 8-team playoff that would be optimal. But it almost certainly will lead to some sort of modification to the current system. Most likely it will be the much-rumored +1 system. Let me go on a record as saying this is worse than the current system, but that can be good. Because the first time this really screws things up we might be in line for something better. Why do I think the +1 is worse? Because the first time some team (let’s say an SEC team) runs the table, wins the SEC title, and then wins their bowl game they will be 14-0, what happens if they lose the +1 game to a two-loss team? I understand that in the current system a similar scenario is possible, but unlikely. I could go into many details but the bottom line is that something will go wrong with a +1.

Meanwhile, here are my predictions for the bowls:

• Championship: Ohio St. vs. LSU
• Rose: USC vs. Illinois
• Orange:  Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
• Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona St.
• Sugar: Georgia vs. Hawaii* (if Hawaii fails to win tonight this spot will go to Kansas)

Why do I think it will shake out that way? Georgia won’t (read: shouldn’t) be #2 when the standings come out but I am betting they stay 3rd or 4th. By the BCS rules that means they make it automatically (which also means the SEC is out of spots). Because Ohio St. will be #1, the Rose Bowl will get first pick of teams BUT because the Sugar is losing LSU they would have to consent for the Rose bowl to take Georgia and they are NOT going to do that. So the Rose will likely take Illinois, make their money and preserve their tradition. The Sugar gets Georgia and the Orange picks next. Picking WVU sets up a nice regional matchup that would be attractive for fans to travel. The Fiesta picks next and would most likely take the local ASU Sun Devils. The Sugar bowl picks last since they get the championship game and will be “stuck” with Hawaii unless they lost tonight. If that happens the will have to pick from the ACC (Boston College/Clemson) or Big 12 (Missouri/Kansas) eligible teams. The bowls don’t like to take teams coming off losses but it’s going to be hard to avoid unless they take Clemson. I think they will take 1-loss Kansas who should travel well after their dream season.

The Michigan coaching search takes a crazy turn

Les Miles announced today that he will return to LSU next season as coach. Now we learned from his predecessor Mr. Saban that your word doesn’t mean a thing until you prove it. I don’t think there is any chance that Les Miles is lying. I think a lot of coaches have learned from Nick Saban and it will be a while before someone is stupid enough to do what he did. I was definitely in the camp that if he got offered the job at Michigan there was no way he turns it down. I was wrong, but this isn’t crazy and here’s why:

1. It’s hard to start over – Both with your personal and professional life. He is settled in there. He knows the program and the facilities and the area and it makes it convenient to stay.
2. He would have owed LSU $1.25 million dollars – From everything I have heard about the way this works is that some Michigan booster(s) would have picked up the tab for this one. Well I assume that is true, you never know.
3. The salary – Miles was making something like $1.6 million at LSU and it’s questionable how much of a bump Michigan was offering. Supposedly he re-negotiated his contract with LSU and when we hear how much of a raise we got we will learn a lot.  The guy has won 85% of his games so far so I expect it will be over $2mil when it’s announced.
4. He has a good team – Like I said he has already won 85% of his games and if it wasn’t for injuries to a lot of his key players he might not have lost those two triple overtime games. LSU stands a good chance to be the highest ranked 2-loss team when the season is over.
5. His recruiting classes are good – He has a lot of talent coming back next year. Ryan Perrilloux is a stud waiting to happen and he has two years of eligibility left. You can look in his direction as one of the “new” Heisman candidates for next year (more on this in a later post). Keiland Williams can be a stud running back. Trindon Holliday brings back the speed. We haven’t seen much of WR Terrance Tolliver yet and he isn’t done recruiting for next season. This team should be top 10 in the preaseason.

You can’t fault Les Miles for not wanting to go to a new place where he doesn’t know the players where you have to start over recruiting. Add to it that LSU is turning into a big-time program and he has a long way to go.

The Johan derby is picking up steam

So things are pretty crazy for Johan Santana right now. A day after the news broke that the Yankees were in talks, we find out the Red Sox are in talks as well. It’s not a huge shocker because we knew those two teams were probably the front runners. Both have the young talent to trade and it is just a matter of who is going to blink first. The Twins are in a great position because the have the two most free spending franchises in history fighting over their guy. They should have no problem getting exactly what they want as they play the two teams off of eachother. I am predicting this is sorted out before the end of the winter meetings. If I was taking bets the Yanks would be the favorite because I think they are more winning to part with more. We shall see though.